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May, 2024

Aussie ad spend revised down but global ad spend tracking ahead of economy in 2024

The latest Dentsu Global Ad Spend report has revised Australian ad spend in 2024 down to 1.8% in 2024 (vs –0.8% in 2023) to reach $US13 billion. But it’s painted a brighter global advertising spend picture, saying it’s now projected to grow by 5.0% in 2024.

It’s an anticipated growth rate that outpaces the 3.3% growth observed in 2023 and exceeds the global economy’s growth by 1.8 percentage points. By the end of 2024, an estimated $US754.4 billion will be spent worldwide on advertising.

In Australia, ad spend is forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2024, reaching $US13 billion, a reflection of uncertain economic conditions which saw media investment forecasts revised down to 1.8%. Despite this, a growth of 2.6% is expected in 2025, driven by factors such as a federal election and anticipated growth in government spending.

Major sports events such as the Paris Olympics and Paralympics are also expected to boost ad spend in the second half of 2024. Furthermore, new alliances and partnerships between media and tech actors are expected to continue throughout the year. In Australia, retail media and digital platforms, particularly search and video, are expected to dominate.

Locally, for example, Dentsu highlighted the anticipated launch of Warner Bros Discovery’s streaming platform, Max, resulting in HBO content such as Succession, Game of Thrones and Euphoria, shifting from Australian home Foxtel and Binge to its own platform.

In Australia, the digital video ad market will notably expand with the launch of multiple ad-supported subscription video services.

“Others have been keen to seize the generative AI opportunities, with OpenAI partnering with publications such as Le Monde or El País to bring news content into ChatGPT, 7 with News Corp signing its own deal just this month which will result in current and archived content from News Corp Australian publications such as The Australian and becoming available on ChatGPT,” the report authors stated.

Google has also joined forces with Reddit to bring generative AI to Reddit search and make Reddit conversations more visible across Google products.

Globally, the 2024 Dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts report said digital is expected to remain the fastest growing channel at 7.4% to reach $US449.3 billion and 59.6% of global ad spend. Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth. Television spend is forecast to rise by 2.6% to reach $170.0 billion in 2024, driven by connected TV.

Dentsu said the explosion of retail media will continue across the remainder of the year, with digital platforms also expected to continue to dominate, particularly across search and video as key Subscription-Video On-Demand (SVOD) platforms roll out ad-tiers in the local market.

“We have seen new alliances to build more robust advertising solutions, with, for example, Walmart bolstering Walmart Connect, its retail media offering, through the acquisition of VIZIO, the smart TV manufacturer and advertising platform. We expect this trend of forging mutually beneficial media partnerships to beat the slow economic outlook to continue in the second half of 2024,” the report continued.

The global ad market is forecast to increase at a 4.5% three-year CAGR to reach $819.1 billion in 2026. The fastest ad spend growth is predicted in the Americas (+5.9% growth, 46.8% share of global spend), followed by Asia-Pacific (+4.2%, 31.3%) and Europe, Middle East and Africa (+4.0%, 21.9%).

The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.

Two industries expected to grow quickly in the top 12 markets are travel and transport (+8.1%) followed by media and entertainment (+6.5%). The global economy is projected to increase by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 4.2% in 2024, with India leading at 6.8%. Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.7%, with the United States leading at 2.7%.