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FMCG has been a bright spark in a dour retail environment over the last two years as consumers doubled down on value and discounts per market research firm Circana. At-home affordable indulgence, self-care and some essentials aspiration have also been key to keeping consumers spending. It’s led a seemingly disparate group of brands – the likes of Dairy Milk to Guzman y Gomez and Manicare Glam – to over-index and grow share in their respective categories. But get ready for a recalibration: green shoots are finally sprouting, according to the group’s analysts and ASB’s Nick Tuffley, and brands should prepare to re-oil the growth engines. Meanwhile Circana data highlights the FMCG winners – and losers – of the last two years.

Electric vehicle sales are decelerating while competition intensifies. Polestar has to cut through as a three-year-old brand amid free-spending century-old auto heavyweights while charging top dollar for its cars. Yet local boss Scott Maynard reckons it will double sales within the next two to three years – with bonafide sustainability creds doing heavy lifting. But he says the cars have to be hot and sexy too, otherwise nobody will buy them. Luckily Polestar is ramping up production and the new models – the SUVs Australia has gone nuts for – are hitting the streets with performance that blows most petrol sports cars away. Meanwhile tax and emissions rule changes could refuel electric vehicle growth next year – and maybe see competitors topping up its marketing budget.

The Government has gone all out to make its $22.7bn Future Made In Australia plan land with a splash. On paper a $45m campaign budget – with $4m for The Monkeys – should be a recipe for success. The challenge is getting voters to give a toss about a vision of future prosperity years away from today’s long-running wallet squeeze and spiralling bills. Whether Australians are willing to pay more to support beefed-up local industries over cheaper imported alternatives will determine the policy’s success or failure. Consumer researchers say it comes down to collective willingness to put the bigger picture over our own back pocket. The data says it’s highly unlikely – and the odds of an ad campaign moving the needle are pretty long.

The cost-of-living might be grabbing the headlines but according to panellists at the latest Australian Marketing Institute (AMI) and ThinkNewsBrands Marketing Perspectives Series event, it’s uncertainty and anxiety that’s driving the way consumers behave and make decisions. The bad news is it can send consumers into echo chambers in an attempt to find connection. The good news is it can also drive us to pragmatic action and the desire for authentic, genuine engagement.